Trends in the markets for commercial vehicles

For 2025, we expect that new registrations for mid-sized and heavy trucks with a gross weight of more than six tonnes will be down noticeably on the previous year in the markets that are relevant for the Volkswagen Group, with variations from region to region.

A noticeable year-on-year decline in market development is expected in the 27 EU countries excluding Malta, but including the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland (EU27+3). We anticipate that new registrations in Türkiye will remain steady. In South Africa, we expect a slight decline in demand compared with the previous year. The truck market in North America is divided into weight classes 1 to 8. In the segments relevant for Volkswagen – Class 6 to 8 (8.85 tonnes or heavier) – we expect new registrations to be slightly lower than in the previous year. After a very positive development in the reporting year, we anticipate steady demand in Brazil for 2025.

On average, we anticipate that demand in the relevant truck markets will remain at a steady level for the years 2026 to 2029.

A noticeable year-on-year increase in demand is anticipated for 2025 in the bus markets relevant for the Volkswagen Group, whereby this will vary depending on the region. In the EU27+3 region, we expect demand to be slightly above that of the previous year. We forecast a strong increase in demand for school buses in the USA and Canada. For the bus market in Mexico, we anticipate a sharp decline in volumes on account of the significantly positive trend in the reporting year. New registrations in Brazil will probably be noticeably lower than the prior-year figure in 2025.

Overall, we expect demand for buses to be steady on average across the relevant markets for the period from 2026 to 2029.