Trends in the markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
The trend in the automotive industry closely follows global economic developments. We assume that competition in the international automotive markets will intensify further. Crisis-related disruption to the global supply chain and the resulting impact on vehicle availability may weigh on the volume of new registrations. Moreover, a sudden outbreak of geopolitical tension and conflicts or the intensification of existing ones could lead to rising prices for materials and declining availability of energy.
We predict that trends in the markets for passenger cars in the individual regions will be mixed but predominantly positive in 2025. Overall, the global volume of new car sales is expected to be slightly higher than in the previous year. We are forecasting growing demand for passenger cars worldwide in the period from 2026 to 2029.
Trends in the markets for light commercial vehicles in the individual regions will be mixed; on the whole, we expect the sales volume for 2025 to be similar to the previous year’s figure. For the years 2026 to 2029, we expect demand for light commercial vehicles to increase globally.
Europe/Other Markets
For 2025, we anticipate that the volume of new passenger car registrations in Western Europe will be noticeably higher than that recorded in the reporting year. For the major individual markets of France, the United Kingdom and Spain, we expect growth in 2025 to varying degrees between slightly and noticeably above the prior-year level. We estimate that the Italian market will be on a par with the previous year.
For light commercial vehicles, we expect the volume of new registrations in Western Europe in 2025 to be on a level with the previous year. Mixed development is anticipated in the major individual markets of France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain.
Sales of passenger cars in 2025 are expected to sharply exceed the prior-year figures overall in markets in Central and Eastern Europe – subject to the further development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We expect a mixed development in the major markets of this region.
Depending on how the Russia-Ukraine conflict evolves, registrations of light commercial vehicles in the markets of Central and Eastern Europe in 2025 will probably noticeably exceed the prior-year figures.
Germany
In the German passenger car market, we expect the volume of new registrations in 2025 to be slightly up on the prior-year level.
We anticipate that the number of registrations of light commercial vehicles in 2025 will also be slightly up on the previous year’s figure.
North America
The sales volume in the markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (up to 6.35 tonnes) in North America overall and in the United States in 2025 is forecast to be similar to the level seen in the previous year. Demand will probably remain highest predominantly for models in the SUV and pickup segments. New registrations of all-electric vehicles are also expected to increase very strongly. In Canada, the number of new registrations is likely to remain on a level with the previous year. We expect the volume of new registrations in Mexico to be slightly up year-on-year.
South America
Owing to their dependence on demand for raw materials worldwide, the South American markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles are heavily influenced by developments in the global economy. We anticipate a noticeable increase overall in new registrations in the South American markets in 2025 compared with the previous year. The market volume in Brazil is expected to increase slightly compared with 2024, while a strong increase is projected for Argentina.
Asia-Pacific
The passenger car markets in the Asia-Pacific region in 2025 are expected to be similar to the previous year. We estimate that the market volume in China will be on a level with the comparative figure for 2024. Plug-in hybrid models with long ranges are likely to be increasingly in demand. A weaker-than-expected economic recovery or intensifying geopolitical tensions may have adverse effects. In particular, the trade dispute between China and the United States is likely to continue to weigh on business and consumer confidence, as long as there is no resolution in sight. We expect the Indian passenger car market to be slightly higher than in the previous year, with a noticeable increase in demand in Japan.
The volume of new registrations for light commercial vehicles in the Asia-Pacific region in 2025 will probably be in the range of the previous year’s figure. We are expecting demand in the Chinese market to be close to the prior-year level. For India, we project that the volume in 2025 will be slightly higher than in the reporting year. In the Japanese market, we estimate that volumes will also be slightly higher year-on-year.