Summary of expected developments

Our planning is based on the assumption that global economic output will grow overall in 2025 at a slightly slower pace than in 2024. Declining inflation in major economic regions and the resulting easing of monetary policy are expected to boost consumer demand. We continue to believe that risks will arise from increasing fragmentation of the global economy and protectionist tendencies, turbulence in the financial markets and structural deficits in individual countries. In addition, continuing geopolitical tensions and conflicts are weighing on growth prospects; risks are associated in particular with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the confrontations in the Middle East, and deepening uncertainties regarding the political orientation of the USA. We assume that both the advanced economies and the emerging markets will record somewhat weaker momentum on average than that of the reporting year.

The trend in the automotive industry closely follows global economic developments. We assume that competition in the international automotive markets will intensify further. Crisis-related disruption to the global supply chain and the resulting impact on vehicle availability may weigh on the volume of new registrations. Moreover, sudden new or intensified geopolitical tension and conflicts could lead to rising prices for materials and declining availability of energy.

We predict that trends in the markets for passenger cars in the individual regions will be mixed but predominantly positive in 2025. Overall, the global volume of new car sales is expected to be slightly higher than the prior-year level. For 2025, we anticipate that the volume of new passenger car registrations in Western Europe will be noticeably higher than that recorded in the reporting year. In the German passenger car market, we expect the volume of new registrations in 2025 to be slightly up on the prior-year level. Sales of passenger cars in 2025 are expected to strongly exceed the prior-year figures overall in markets in Central and Eastern Europe – subject to the further development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The sales volume in the markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (up to 6.35 tonnes) in North America overall and in the United States in 2025 is forecast to be similar to the level seen in the previous year. We anticipate a noticeable increase overall in new registrations in the South American markets in 2025 compared with the previous year. The passenger car markets in the Asia-Pacific region in 2025 are expected to be similar to the previous year.

Trends in the markets for light commercial vehicles in the individual regions will be mixed; on the whole, we expect the sales volume for 2025 to be similar to the previous year’s figure.

For 2025, we expect that new registrations for mid-sized and heavy trucks with a gross weight of more than six tonnes will be down noticeably on the previous year in the markets that are relevant for the Volkswagen Group, with variations from region to region. A noticeable year-on-year increase in demand is anticipated for 2025 in the bus markets relevant for the Volkswagen Group, whereby this will vary depending on the region.

We assume that automotive financial services will prove highly important to global vehicle sales in 2025 in synergy with the development of the vehicle markets.

In a challenging market environment, we anticipate that the number of deliveries to customers of the Volkswagen Group will be similar to the previous year.

Challenges will arise in particular from an environment of political uncertainty, expanding trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions, the increasing intensity of competition, volatile commodity, energy and foreign exchange markets, and more stringent emissions-related requirements.

We expect the sales revenue of the Volkswagen Group and the Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles segment to exceed the previous year’s figure by up to 5% in 2025. The operating return on sales is projected to be between 5.5% and 6.5% for the Group and between 6% and 7% for the Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles segment. For the Commercial Vehicles segment, we anticipate an operating return on sales of 7.5% to 8.5% amid sales revenue on a level with the previous year. For the Financial Services Division, we forecast an increase of up to 5% in sales revenue compared with the prior year and an operating result in the range of €4.0 billion.

In the Automotive Division, we are assuming an investment ratio of between 12% and 13% in 2025. We expect net cash flow for 2025 to be between €2 billion and €5 billion. This includes cash outflows for investments for the future as well as for restructuring measures. Net liquidity in the Automotive Division in 2025 is expected to be between €34 billion and €37 billion. Our goal remains unchanged, namely, to continue with our robust financing and liquidity policy.